How Many Years Do Solar Panels Last, and How Much Output Is Left After 30?
Summary
Government and lab sources put it at 25 to 30 years. DOE says modules are expected to last 25 years or more while still producing more than 80% of their original power, and NLR says that for modules built today the lifetime is "probably 30 years." Output typically drops 0.5% to 1% a year, which after 30 years leaves roughly 70% to 85% of the original rating.
What each source says
| Source | Lifetime stated |
|---|---|
| DOE, Solar Photovoltaic Cell Basics | 25 years or more, still above 80% of original power |
| EPA, end-of-life solar panel regulations | lifespan of more than 25 years |
| FTC, consumer guide | residential systems designed to stay on a home at least 20 years |
| NLR feature (2022, updated April 2026) | probably 30 years for today's modules; they must generate for 30 to 40 years, with research aiming at 50 |
None of these describes a date when panels shut off. The years mark how long they are expected to keep producing.
Stretching the degradation rate to 30 years
NLR's feature gives annual degradation as "generally 0.5%–1%," and a 2013 review by NLR researchers Jordan and Kurtz found a median of 0.5% a year across nearly 2,000 measured rates. Assuming the same loss every year:
| Years | At 0.5% a year | At 1% a year |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 95% | 90% |
| 20 | 90% | 80% |
| 30 | 85% | 70% |
On a 10 kW roof, that is the output of 8.5 kW at 0.5% a year and 7 kW at 1% by year 30. Manufacturer performance warranties spell out a finer curve; the Qcells Q.TRON BLK M-G2+, for instance, promises at least 98.5% in year one, no more than 0.33% a year after that, and at least 90.58% in year 25.
Sources
- U.S. Department of Energy — Solar Photovoltaic Cell Basics
- U.S. EPA — End-of-Life Solar Panels: Regulations and Management (updated 2026-07-31)
- Federal Trade Commission — Solar Power for Your Home
- NLR — Aging Gracefully: How NREL Is Extending the Lifetime of Solar Modules (2022-03-15, updated 2026-04-28)
- NLR — Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: An Analytical Review (Jordan and Kurtz, 2013)
- Qcells — Q.TRON BLK M-G2+ series datasheet (Rev02, 2026-04)
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