How Many Years Does a Rooftop Solar System Installed in 2026 Take to Pay Back?
Summary
For a 7.7 kW system bought at the national average of $2.60 per watt ($20,020), with every kilowatt-hour valued at the national average residential rate and maintenance subtracted, simple payback is about 9 years in Phoenix, 13 in New York and 15 in Seattle. With the 30% federal credit that ended after 2025, New York would have been about 9 years. If loan fees push the principal 30% above the cash price, New York stretches to about 16.
Three cities
| City | Annual output | Bill savings | Savings after maintenance | Payback | With the old 30% credit | With 30% loan markup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | about 13,500 kWh | about $2,480 | about $2,250 | about 8.9 years | about 6.2 years | about 11.6 years |
| New York | about 9,940 kWh | about $1,820 | about $1,590 | about 12.6 years | about 8.8 years | about 16.3 years |
| Seattle | about 8,380 kWh | about $1,540 | about $1,310 | about 15.3 years | about 10.7 years | about 19.9 years |
The inputs:
- Size: 7.7 kW, the 2025 U.S. residential median reported by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
- Installed cost: $2.60 per watt, EnergySage's national average (updated June 30, 2026)
- Output: PVWatts annual output per kW (south-facing, 20° tilt, 14% losses) times 7.7
- Electricity value: 18.34 cents per kWh, EIA's June 2026 residential average
- Maintenance: $30 per kW a year from NLR's 2024 Annual Technology Baseline, or $231 for 7.7 kW
EnergySage also publishes its own payback estimates on its state pages. In September they read 7.73 years for California, 9.79 for Florida, 11.96 for Ohio and 12.92 for Texas.
The credit and the loan fees
The IRS does not allow the residential clean energy credit (Section 25D) for expenditures made after December 31, 2025. Paying in 2025 does not help if the installation is completed in 2026, because the expenditure then counts as made in 2026.
CFPB's August 2024 report says hidden fees on solar loans typically run 10 to 30 percent of the cash price and can exceed 50 percent. In its example, a $30,000 cash-price project carries a $9,000 fee, and the loan documents show $39,000 of principal.
Sources
- EnergySage — Solar Panel Cost in 2026 (updated 2026-06-30)
- EnergySage — Cost of solar panels in California (updated 2026-09-11)
- EnergySage — Cost of solar panels in Texas (updated 2026-09-18)
- EnergySage — Cost of solar panels in Florida (updated 2026-09-18)
- EnergySage — Cost of solar panels in Ohio (updated 2026-09-11)
- NLR — PVWatts V8 API (Phoenix, New York, Seattle; 1 kW, tilt 20°, azimuth 180°, losses 14%; run 2026-09-23)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory — U.S. Distributed Solar and Storage 2026 Data Update (August 2026)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration — Electricity Monthly Update, End Use (June 2026 data, released 2026-08-26)
- NLR — Annual Technology Baseline 2024, Residential PV
- IRS — FAQs for modification of sections 25C, 25D, 25E, 30C, 30D, 45L, 45W, and 179D (FS-2025-05)
- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — Issue Spotlight: Solar Financing (2024-08-07)
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